[Chris]

For those that saw the first playoff game of the weekend, how much does it prove that Mike Martz is one of the dumbest game decision coaches in the NFL?

He makes game clock and other (punt, FG, or go for it) decisions as if he has never seen a football game before in his life. I am able to make better strategy decisions in cricket than he is in football.

What do I mean?

With 2:44 left in regulation, after being 11 points behind, the Rams manage to score a TD and the 2PT conversion. Now 8 points behind and only having one timeout, they have to try the on-side kick. By a miracle, the kicker recovers the kick and its Rams ball on their 42 with 2:39 left.

Now, you have to advance 58 yards in 2:39 with 1 timeout and the 2:00 warning in hand to win, kick the field goal to tie. Time is basically not that much of a factor - you don't want the Panthers to get the ball back, so you need to stretch it out... but you want enough time to take a few shots at the endzone before you settle for the FG.

Basically, you go into a quick huddle offense, going about 20 seconds between plays instead of the standard 35.

Not if you're Mike Martz.

Instead this idiot runs out the clock and kicks the FG to go into overtime. Because rather than

1) Trying a few times to score a TD and win the game from 20 yards out (with a chance of losing a game being a turnover - less than 5% usually - for this game they had 3 turnovers in 71 plays - about 4%) and then kicking a FG (85% chance of OT, 15% chance of loss - based on Wilkins (Rams kicker) 30 to 39 yard numbers (the kick was 33 yards). Remember that this option still leaves the opportunity to go for the tie!

2) He instead opted for the immediate FG, killing all the time off the clock. Thus, he was setting himself up for an 85% chance for overtime. Once in OT, he would have had a 50% chance of losing. (OT is always a 50/50 proposition.)

In math terms:

1) 5% chance of loss, with EITHER option to either fall back on option 2 at any time OR chance at game ending win. -- If there's a 1 in 5 chance the Rams score a TD (I think it was much higher, maybe 1 in 3.) it breaks down to:

20% chance of regulation win (TD)
31.875% chance of OT win (FG made and win OT)
16.25% chance of regulation loss (Turnover, miss FG)
31.875% chance of OT loss (FG made and OT loss)

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Total = 51.875% chance of winning


2)
15% chance of regulation loss (miss FG)
42.5% chance of OT loss (make FG, lose OT)
42.5% chance of OT win (make FG, win OT)

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Total = 42.5% chance of winning

Mike Martz chose #2.

If you think that the Rams could have scored a TD 1 in 3 times (like I do) option 1's chance of winning increases from 51.875% to 60.85%!!!!!!

Want more evidence? Look at the final drive (stolen from NFL.com):

St. Louis Rams at 02:39
J.Wilkins kicks onside 12 yards from SL 30 to SL 42. RECOVERED by SL-J.Wilkins.
1-10-STL42 (2:38) M.Bulger pass to I.Bruce to CAR 38 for 20 yards (D.Grant).
1-10-CAR38 (2:00) M.Bulger pass to I.Bruce to CAR 25 for 13 yards (R.Manning).
1-10-CAR25 (1:24) M.Bulger pass to M.Faulk to CAR 19 for 6 yards (T.Cousin).
2-4-CAR19 (:42) M.Faulk right end to CAR 15 for 4 yards (D.Grant).
1-10-CAR15 (:03) J.Wilkins 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-C.Massey, Holder-D.Looker.
CAR 23 STL 23, Plays: 5 Yards: 43 Possession: 2:39.

Notice how many times they were stopped? None. They were moving the ball successfully.

Also notice how much time elapsed between plays. The play at 2:00 could have happened at 2:08 if the huddle was faster- giving them an additional play. In addition, they never spiked the ball or used their TO until :03 to set up the field goal. Run out of bounds, spike the ball - take a few shots at the end zone and then maybe the Rams go to the NFC Championship. Or go the Mike Martz way and watch the game on TV.

Moron.

P.S. I hated the decision as he was making it, not in a 20/20 way. If a FG ties and time is on your side ALWAYS GO FOR THE TD - in a low-risk manner.

[Brendan]

WAY too much effort on that post, but frustration will do that to you

[Chris]

My main point was that Martz is a bad coach, but I wanted to also get through to any Martz apologists who might go on about how good he is at creating an offense, blah blah blah... He doesn't understand decision making and should have been fired before Lovie Smith left, but I guess it's too late for that now.

[Brendan]

No, I understand. Martz is an awful coach, maybe he was a fine OC, maybe it was just the talent that they had during their super bowl run, but as a coach he has made some pretty bad decisions, not even just in hindsight. Without Bruce, Holt, and Faulk, St. Louis has a 3-13 team. The Patriots are not the best team in the AFC, but their coach gets them to play that way, Martz would be 5-11 with the Pats.